Nba Point Spread Formula
The 70th NBA All-Star Game will take place tonight in Atlanta, and the coronavirus pandemic has already made sure it is one unlike any other we’ve seen before.
- NBA Point Spread Formula. When it comes time for the oddsmakers to release the NBA point spread for a showdown, several things come into play before the numbers for the point spread are released. You must always take into account the record of the two teams, who are the home team and more.
- If they made the point spread 6 points or 5 points instead of 5 and a half, there becomes the possibility of a tie. If the line is 6 points, and the Dolphins win by two field goals, then the bet is a tie, and all the money is returned to everyone.
- Find NBA odds, point spreads, and betting lines for the 2020-2021 basketball season. Visit FOXSports.com for this week's top action!
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons have been ruled out of tonight’s game due to contact tracing. But still, the game is going to happen and our friends at BetMGM are taking your bets. We’re giving you all the information we can from them so you can make your best wagers possible on tonight’s exhibition with the league’s biggest stars.
Point Spread Betting in Football. One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following.
The lines, courtesy of BetMGM
Point spread: Team LeBron -4.5Moneyline: Team LeBron -175 / Team Durant +150Over-under: 315.5Place your legal, online sports bets in VA, CO, IA, IN, NJ, PA, TN and WV at BetMGM.
Advice and prediction
When you look at the names, scoring, shooting, and passing, Team LeBron is going to be incredibly difficult to beat. LeBron James, Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounpmo in the starting lineup followed by Damian Lillard off the bench?
But the thing about the All-Star games that is easy to forget is how amazing the other team is, too. Kevin Durant isn’t playing for Team Durant, which is a major loss for that side. Still, they have James Harden and he’s been maybe the best player in the league over the past month.
We also have to consider the other aspect of the All-Star Game that makes it different from any other NBA betting situation: the Elam Ending. After the third quarter, they will add 24 points, in honor of Kobe Bryant, to the leading team’s score to determine the target score.
By introducing a pick-up game element where you play to a score, you will see a lot more tough defense in the 4th quarter. That’s what we saw last season and it makes me believe even if one of the teams gets out to a 20 or even 30-point lead, the different ending will result in a competitive game.
But Embiid showed last season during the ASG that he wasn’t afraid to take big shots and while Harden and Irving are great in that spot, but not having Durant on both ends, in addition to not having Embiid during such a high-level game, is going to be too much to handle.
If all things were equal as far as the stars, I would take the points and lean on Team Durant. But something tells me Team LeBron is going to want to hit the target score and get on the first flight out of Atlanta. Also, take the under.
Prediction: Team LeBron 150, Team Durant 135
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
Nba Point Spread Formula Sheet
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
Nba Point Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Nba Spreads Today
Nba Point Spread Formula Calculator
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.